Your browser does not support JavaScript!

access icon openaccess Long-term reliability evaluation for small hydro-power generations based on flow runoff theory

Electric power output from a small hydro-power (SHP) generator is usually determined by the water flow, which fluctuates slowly in short term. However, for long term, the water flow varies greatly with the seasonal changes. This uncertainty will take great impacts on system reliability, especially for systems with high hydro-power penetration. This study presents a methodology to evaluate the reliability of SHP generators. The mechanism of producing and conflux of flow runoff is studied and modelled utilising universal generating function (UGF) methods. The power generation reliability and availability of a single SHP generator and several SHP generators clustered together in groups are represented as the corresponding UGFs. The expected generated energy and the generation availability are used to evaluate the reliability of SHP generators. The modified IEEE case of six SHP generators in Brazilian rivers is evaluated by the proposed method.


    1. 1)
      • 3. Guan, H.: ‘Hydrology’ (Science Press, Beijing, 2015).
    2. 2)
      • 14. Billinton, R., Allan, R.: ‘Reliability evaluation of power systems’ (Plenum, New York, 1996).
    3. 3)
    4. 4)
      • 10. Masters, G.M.: ‘Renewable and efficient electric power systems’ (Wiley, NJ, Hoboken, 2004).
    5. 5)
    6. 6)
    7. 7)
      • 7. Zhang, X., Kang, C., Zhang, N., et al: ‘Analysis of mid/long term random characteristics of photovoltaic power generation’, Autom. Electr. Power Syst., 2014, 38, (6), pp. 613.
    8. 8)
      • 5. Rui, X., Gong, X., Zhao, C., et al: ‘Formation and calculation of watershed runoff yield’, J. Hydroelectr. Eng., 2009, 28, (6), pp. 146150.
    9. 9)
      • 13. Levitin, G.: ‘Universal generating function and its applications’ (Springer, New York, 2005).
    10. 10)
    11. 11)
      • 6. Dunne, T.: ‘Field studies of hillslope flow processes’, in: Kirkby, M.J. (Ed.): ‘Hillslope hydrology’ (Wiley & Sons Ltd., New York, 1978), pp. 227293.
    12. 12)
      • 4. Horton, R.E.: ‘Surface runoff phenomena’ (Horton Hydrological Laboratory, Voorheesville, New York, 1935).
    13. 13)
    14. 14)

Related content

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address