access icon free Short-term forecasting of ionospheric total electron content over a low-latitude global navigation satellite system station

The prediction and forecasting of ionospheric delay at equatorial and low-latitude regions is an essential contribution for improving the global positioning system services. In this study, hybrid auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are implemented based on wavelet transform (WT) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for 1 h ahead forecast of ionospheric total electron content (TEC). The performance of ARIMA and hybrid models, WT and EMD in combination with ARIMA (WARIMA and EARIMA) is evaluated during various seasons and March geomagnetic storm conditions in 2013 and 2015. The proposed models are validated with empirical global TEC models and results show that the EARIMA has less error measurements compared with ARIMA and WARIMA models. The EARIMA ionospheric forecasting model can be useful for developing an early warning ionospheric space weather system over low latitudes.

Inspec keywords: wavelet transforms; Global Positioning System; atmospheric techniques; autoregressive moving average processes; magnetic storms; weather forecasting; ionospheric disturbances

Other keywords: empirical global TEC models; hybrid ARIMA models; WARIMA model; low-latitude global navigation satellite system station; EMD; hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average models; early warning ionospheric space weather system; ionospheric delay prediction; ionospheric delay forecasting; error measurements; ionospheric TEC forecasting; March geomagnetic storm conditions; global positioning system services; ionospheric total electron content forecasting; empirical mode decomposition; wavelet transform; low-latitude regions; EARIMA model; short-term forecasting

Subjects: Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics; Function theory, analysis; Instrumentation and techniques for geophysical, hydrospheric and lower atmosphere research; Radionavigation and direction finding; Integral transforms; Ionospheric disturbances and modification experiments; Weather analysis and prediction; Other topics in statistics; Atmospheric, ionospheric and magnetospheric techniques and equipment

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