Hybrid forecasting model-based data mining and genetic algorithm-adaptive particle swarm optimisation: a case study of wind speed time series

Jianzhou Wang; Fanyong Zhang; Feng Liu; Jianjun Ma

Hybrid forecasting model-based data mining and genetic algorithm-adaptive particle swarm optimisation: a case study of wind speed time series

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Author(s): Jianzhou Wang ¹ ; Fanyong Zhang ² ; Feng Liu ^{1, 2} ; Jianjun Ma ²
- Affiliations: 1: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, People's Republic of China ;
  2: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, People's Republic of China
Source: Volume 10, Issue 3, March 2016, p. 287 – 298
DOI: 10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0010 , Print ISSN 1752-1416, Online ISSN 1752-1424

Received 25/03/2015, Accepted 04/09/2015, Revised 04/08/2015, Published 01/03/2016

Wind energy has been part of the fastest growing renewable energy sources and is clean and pollution-free. Wind energy has been gaining increasing global attention, and wind speed forecasting plays a vital role in the wind energy field. However, such forecasting has been demonstrated to be a challenging task due to the effect of various meteorological factors. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model that can effectively provide preprocessing for the original data and improve forecasting accuracy. The developed model applies a genetic algorithm-adaptive particle swarm optimisation algorithm to optimise the parameters of the wavelet neural network (WNN) model. The proposed hybrid method is subsequently examined in regard to the wind farms of eastern China. The forecasting performance demonstrates that the developed model is better than some traditional models (for example, back propagation, WNN, fuzzy neural network, and support vector machine), and its applicability is further verified by the paired-sample T tests.

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Hybrid forecasting model-based data mining and genetic algorithm-adaptive particle swarm optimisation: a case study of wind speed time series

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