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access icon free Times-series modelling for the aggregate Great Britain wind output circa 2030

© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Received 05/02/2012, Accepted 17/12/2012, Revised 21/10/2012, Published

The authors present a four-season model representing the aggregate output of a possible British wind fleet circa 2030, suitable for providing synthetic wind time series or a statistical characterisation of the transitional behaviour at timescales of 1 h and above. The model is fitted to an aggregated power output time series derived from historic onshore anemometry data and shown to provide a good fit to both long-term and transitional statistics. The authors show that the use of a constant factor to extrapolate anemometer-height wind speeds to hub height leads to an excessive diurnal variation in the implied wind power output. They adjust the model parameters to compensate for this and to account for the offshore component that is not present in the raw data. The complete parameter set is presented.

Inspec keywords: offshore installations; anemometry; wind power plants; statistical analysis; time series

Other keywords: times-series modelling; transitional behaviour; synthetic wind time series; historic onshore anemometry data; long-term statistics; transitional statistics; offshore component; wind power output; British wind fleet circa 2030; anemometer-height wind speeds; aggregated power output; hub height; Great Britain wind output circa 2030; statistical characterisation; four-season model

Subjects: Wind power plants; Other topics in statistics; Wave power

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