Multi-model ensemble for short-term traffic flow prediction under normal and abnormal conditions

Multi-model ensemble for short-term traffic flow prediction under normal and abnormal conditions

For access to this article, please select a purchase option:

Buy article PDF
(plus tax if applicable)
Buy Knowledge Pack
10 articles for $120.00
(plus taxes if applicable)

IET members benefit from discounts to all IET publications and free access to E&T Magazine. If you are an IET member, log in to your account and the discounts will automatically be applied.

Learn more about IET membership 

Recommend Title Publication to library

You must fill out fields marked with: *

Librarian details
Your details
Why are you recommending this title?
Select reason:
IET Intelligent Transport Systems — Recommend this title to your library

Thank you

Your recommendation has been sent to your librarian.

Accurate traffic flow prediction under abnormal conditions, such as accidents, adverse weather, work zones, and holidays, is significant for proactive traffic control. Here, the authors focus on a special challenge of how to develop robust responsive algorithms and prediction models for short-term traffic forecasting in different traffic conditions. To this end, this study presents an ensemble learning algorithm for the short-term traffic flow prediction via the integration of gradient boosting regression trees (GBRT) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso). Four different model structures whether considering the feature selection are proposed and tested for multi-step-ahead prediction under both normal and abnormal conditions. The results indicate that the proposed multi-model ensemble models are superior to the benchmark algorithms, i.e., support vector regression, and random forests, the GBRT model outperforms the Lasso model under normal traffic conditions, and the Lasso model has a better prediction accuracy under abnormal traffic conditions. In addition, the Lasso model with the feature selection is superior to the full feature model under either normal or abnormal conditions, while the GBRT model is not always better under normal conditions. The proposed integration framework is general and flexible to assemble various traffic prediction algorithms.

Related content

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address