© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
This study investigates the impact of weather on bus ridership using smart card data collected in Fengxian, Shanghai. The ridership data are categorised into three representative groups by the cluster analysis. The ridership data for each cluster are further divided according to the four seasons. Twelve separate multiple linear regression models with four weather variables and two dummy variables are constructed and calibrated. All four weather variables, namely humidity, wind speed, rainfall and temperature are found to have statistically significant negative effects on bus ridership. The magnitude of the impact varies depending on bus route types, seasons and mode share characteristics. Our analysis provides a valuable case study on weather's impact on bus ridership and concludes that there is no one-size-fits-all conclusion about the relationships between weather attributes and bus ridership, and it is critical to investigate those relationships in different geographical contexts. The results of this study can be used not only for long-term transit policy making but also as a decision making tool for short-term ridership forecasting.
References
-
-
1)
-
23. Richardson, A.J.: ‘Estimating bicycle usage on a national cycle network’, Transp. Res. Record, 2006, 1982, pp. 166–173 (doi: 10.3141/1982-22).
-
2)
-
6. Taylor, B.D., Miller, D., Iseki, H., Fink, C.: ‘Nature and /or nurture? analyzing the determinants of transit ridership across US urbanized areas’, Transp. Res. A, Policy Pract., 2009, 43, (1), pp. 60–77 (doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2008.06.007).
-
3)
-
28. Aaheim, H.A.O.R., Hauge, K.E.: ‘Impacts of climate change on travel habits: a national assessment based on individual choices’ (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, 2005).
-
4)
-
2. Sinha, K.: ‘Sustainability and urban public transportation’, J. Transp. Eng., 2003, 129, (4), pp. 331–341 (doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2003)129:4(331)).
-
5)
-
26. Kalkstein, A.J., Kuby, M., Gerrity, D., Clancy, J.J.: ‘An analysis of air mass effects on rail ridership in three US cities’, J. Transp. Geogr., 2009, 17, (3), pp. 198–207 (doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2008.07.003).
-
6)
-
34. Hartigan, J.A.: ‘Clustering algorithms’ (John Wiley & Sons press, 1975).
-
7)
-
7. Stover, V.W., McCormack, E.D.: ‘The impact of weather on bus ridership in Pierce county, Washington’, J. Public Transp., 2012, 15, (1), pp. 95–110.
-
8)
-
11. Attaset, V., Schneider, R.J., Arnold, L.S., Ragland, D.R.: ‘Effects of weather variables on pedestrian volumes in Alameda County, California’. Presented at 89th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2010.
-
9)
-
12. Saneinejad, S., Roorda, M.J., Kennedy, C.: ‘Modeling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behavior’, Transp. Res. D, Transp. Environ., 2012, 2, (17), pp. 129–37 (doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2011.09.005).
-
10)
-
32. Wang, J.: ‘Research on methods of bus ridership survey and data analysis’, Master's thesis, Tongji University, 2014..
-
11)
-
3. Cervero, R.: ‘Public transport and sustainable urbanism: global lessons’ (University of California Transportation Center, 2006).
-
12)
-
10. Khattak, A.J., De Palma, A.: ‘The impact of adverse weather conditions on the propensity to change travel decisions: a survey of Brussels commuters’, Transp. Res. A, Policy Pract., 1997, 31, (3), pp. 181–203 (doi: 10.1016/S0965-8564(96)00025-0).
-
13)
-
14. Cervero, R., Duncan, M.: ‘Walking, bicycling, and urban landscapes: evidence from the San Francisco bay area’, Am. J. Public Health, 2003, 9, (93), pp. 1478–1483 (doi: 10.2105/AJPH.93.9.1478).
-
14)
-
9. Miranda-Moreno, , Luis, F., Nosal, T.: ‘Weather or not to cycle: temporal trends and impact of weather on cycling in an urban environment’, Transp. Res. Record, 2011, 2247, pp. 42–52 (doi: 10.3141/2247-06).
-
15)
-
25. Hofmann, M., O'Mahony, M.: ‘The impact of adverse westher conditions on urban bus performance measures’. Proc. of the 8th Int. IEEE Conf. on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vienna, Austria, 2005, pp. 84–89.
-
16)
-
19. Nankervis, M.: ‘The effects of weather and climate on urban bicycle commuters’ decision to ride: a pilot survey’, Road Transp. Res., 1999, 4, (8), pp. 85–97.
-
17)
-
18)
-
21. Winters, M., Friesen, M.C., Koehoorn, M., Teschke, K.: ‘Utilitarian bicycling: a multilevel analysis of climate and personal influences’, Am. J. Prevent. Med., 2007, 1, (32), pp. 52–58 (doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2006.08.027).
-
19)
-
22. Richardson, A.: ‘Seasonal and weather impacts on urban cycling trips’ (The Urban Transport Institute, Victoria, 2000).
-
20)
-
18. Nankervis, M.: ‘The effect of weather and climate on bicycle commuting’, Transp. Res. Part A, Policy Pract., 1999, 6, (33), pp. 417–431 (doi: 10.1016/S0965-8564(98)00022-6).
-
21)
-
17. Brandenburg, C., Matzarakis, A., Arnberger, A.: ‘Weather and cycling – a first approach to the effects of weather conditions on cycling’, Meteorol. Appl., 2007, 14, (1), pp. 61–67 (doi: 10.1002/met.6).
-
22)
-
39. Arana, P., Cabezudo, S., Peñalba, M.: ‘Influence of weather conditions on transit ridership: a statistical study using data from smartcards’, Transp. Res. A, Policy Pract., 2014, 59, pp. 1–12 (doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2013.10.019).
-
23)
-
42. Bergström, A., Magnussen, R.: ‘Potential of transferring car trips to bicycle during winter’, Trans. Res. Part A, 2003, 37, pp. 649–666.
-
24)
-
11. Zhang, H., Recker, W.: ‘On optimal freeway ramp control policies for congested traffic corridors’, Transp. Res. B, 1999, 33, (6), pp. 417–436 (doi: 10.1016/S0191-2615(98)00045-9).
-
25)
-
30. Böcker, L., Prillwitz, J., Dijst, M.: ‘Climate change impacts on mode choices and travelled distances: a comparison of present with 2050 weather conditions for the Randstad Holland’, J. Transp. Geogr., 2013, 28, pp. 176–185 (doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.11.004).
-
26)
-
24. Kashfi, S.A., Jinwoo, L., Bunker, J.: ‘Impact of rain on daily bus ridership: a Brisbane case study’. Australasian Transport Research Forum 2013 Proc., Brisbane, Australia, 2013.
-
27)
-
20. Thomas, T., Jaarsma, R., Tutert, B.: ‘Temporal variations of bicycle demand in the Netherlands: the influence of weather on cycling’. Presented at 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2009.
-
28)
-
36. McLachlan, G.J., Basford, K.E.: ‘Mixture models: inference and applications to clustering’ (Marcel Dekker Incorporated press, 1988).
-
29)
-
16. Aultman-Hall, L., Lane, D., Lambert, R.R.: ‘Assessing impact of weather and season on pedestrian traffic volumes’, Transp. Res. Record, 2009, (2140), pp. 35–43 (doi: 10.3141/2140-04).
-
30)
-
31)
-
1. Kennedy, C.A.: ‘A comparison of the sustainability of public and private transportation systems: Study of the Greater Toronto Area’, Transportation, 2002, 29, (4), pp. 459–493 (doi: 10.1023/A:1016302913909).
-
32)
-
27. Cravo, V.S., Cohen, J., Williams, A.: ‘Impact of weather on transit revenue in New York city’. Presented at 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2009.
-
33)
-
40. Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute: ‘The fourth Shanghai comprehensive travel survey report’. Shanghai, 2010.
-
34)
-
41. Müller, S., Tscharaktschiew, S., Haase, K.: ‘Travel-to-school mode choice modelling and patterns of school choice in urban areas’, J. Transp. Geogr., 2008, 16, pp. 342–357 (doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.12.004).
-
35)
-
37. Kaufman, L., Rousseeuw, P.J.: ‘Finding groups in data: an introduction to cluster analysis’ (John Wiley & Sons press, 1990).
-
36)
-
35. Gordon, A.D.: ‘Classification: methods for the exploratory analysis of multivariate data’ (Chapman & Hall press, 1981).
-
37)
-
38)
-
38. Humphreys, M.A.: ‘Field studies of thermal comfort compared and applied’ (Building Research Station press, 1975).
-
39)
-
8. Guo, Z., Wilson, N.H.M., Rahbee, A.: ‘Impact of weather on transit ridership in Chicago, Illinois’, Transp. Res. Record, 2007, 2034, pp. 3–10 (doi: 10.3141/2034-01).
-
40)
-
29. Bureau, Shanghai Statistical: .
-
41)
-
33. Trepanier, M., Morency, C., Blanchette, C.: ‘Enhancing household travel surveys using smart card data’. Presented at 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2009.
-
42)
-
15. Walton, D., Sunseri, S.: ‘Impediments to walking as a mode choice’ (Land Transport, New Zealand, 2007).
-
43)
-
13. Clifton, K.J., Livi, A.D.: ‘Gender differences in walking behavior, attitudes about walking, and perceptions of the environment in Three Maryland Communities’, Res. Women's Issues in Transp., 2005, 2, pp. 79–88.
http://iet.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.1049/iet-its.2014.0062
Related content
content/journals/10.1049/iet-its.2014.0062
pub_keyword,iet_inspecKeyword,pub_concept
6
6