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access icon free Probabilistic production simulation of a wind/photovoltaic/energy storage hybrid power system based on sequence operation theory

© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Received 03/11/2017, Accepted 11/03/2018, Revised 03/02/2018, Published 13/03/2018

Probabilistic production simulation is an important tool used in conventional power systems to calculate generated energy and evaluate reliability. With the continuous expansion of the renewable energy plants, new characteristics such as intermittency and volatility of power are widely discussed, and it is necessary to study the application of probabilistic production simulation for renewable energy power generation. This study proposes a probabilistic production simulation method based on sequence operation theory (SOT) to simulate the operation of a wind/photovoltaic/energy storage power system. Both the uncertainty of renewable resources and the outage of wind turbines are considered in this study. Considering the complementary property of the renewable energy, pattern clustering is used to analyse the meteorological conditions and to assist in the probabilistic production simulation. Moreover, the output model of the energy storage device is developed using the Monte Carlo method and controlled using a smoothing strategy of the energy storage device. Ultimately, the simulation example shows the feasibility and the higher efficiency of the algorithm compared with Monte Carlo method and a production simulation method based on equivalent energy function.

Inspec keywords: probability; wind turbines; photovoltaic power systems; wind power plants; sequences; pattern clustering; power generation reliability; hybrid power systems; Monte Carlo methods; energy storage; smoothing methods; power system simulation

Other keywords: pattern clustering; SOT; wind turbine; renewable energy power generation; probabilistic production simulation method; reliability; equivalent energy function; renewable resource; Monte Carlo method; smoothing strategy; wind-photovoltaic-energy storage hybrid power system; sequence operation theory; renewable energy plant

Subjects: Solar power stations and photovoltaic power systems; Monte Carlo methods; Other energy storage; Wind power plants; Reliability; Power engineering computing; Monte Carlo methods

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