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Relationship between high voltage insulators incidents and climatic factors in AC Algerian electrical networks using ARDL approach

Relationship between high voltage insulators incidents and climatic factors in AC Algerian electrical networks using ARDL approach

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The climatic factors have a strong influence on the polluted high voltage (HV) insulators performance and affect the reliability of networks. Such factors can lead to insulation incidents and outages in the electrical network. Based on monthly 12 weather factors observations (the average temperature, the precipitation, the humidity, the solar radiation, the vapour pressure, the snow depth, the dew point, the air pressure, the visibility, the total cloud cover, the wind direction and the wind speed) obtained during the period 2010–2015 (72 months) at Algerian central region, the authors propose an optimal relationship between the number of HV insulators incidents and the climatic factors. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method was employed to explore the actual and/or delayed (lagged) effect of each climatic factor on HV insulators performance. According to the results, the ARDL approach revealed the existence of strong relationship between these climatic variables and HV insulators incident. Also, the used statistical tests in this study allow us to say whether the proposed model is real and not simply due to chance. The proposed model has been validated by comparing the number of HV insulators incidents predicted for 10 months to real data recorded in Algerian AC transmission networks.

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