The futurologist who looked back [wireless market trends]
The author reassesses how right - or wrong - he was when, five years ago, along with a number of other contributors, he predicted how the wireless landscape would look in 2005 (Webb W., "The future of wireless communications" Artech House, 2001). Most major manufacturers and operators have seen their value decline considerably over the period 2000-2005 and, between them, they have contributed to some of the largest write-offs in history. These corporate difficulties were not generally foreseen in 2000. The impact that they would have on wireless development might be expected to be profound. In overall terms, little change of substance was predicted between 2000 and 2005, and that is exactly what transpired. This was not based on an expectation of hard times ahead for the wireless industry, but more on an understanding of how long it would take for technologies to be developed and reach mass-market penetration levels. While the downturn had traumatic effects for employees and shareholders in many companies, it actually made relatively little difference to the overall deployment of technology. Before the downturn many companies had unrealistic plans; after the downturn they became more realistic. The predictions made in the book for 2005-2010 are summarised and the author believes the still look reasonable.