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Scenario and risk evaluation

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This chapter describes an approach to determine the optimal mix of electricity generation that provides both low generation costs and low levels of emissions under a set of basic assumptions. A two-stage approach is used with a simplified linear programming (LP) model used initially to inform the solution area. Subsequently, a more detailed analysis is used based on a generation dispatch model, including emission calculations, that provides a detailed half-hour simulation of system operation for a selected year. The model provides an estimate of emissions taking account ofvarying proportions of wind and solar generation including carbon capture and storage (CCS) generation and calculates the total costs ofgeneration. The model uses actual recorded system demand profiles and wind generation output collated by transmission zone in the United Kingdom. The profiles for additional wind farms are based on those for existing generation located in the same zone. The output of solar PV is based on a set of radiation data for a geographical location in the middle of the country. The model takes account ofthe impact of managing the intermittency of renewable generation on conventional plant and the need for curtailment at times of low system load.

Chapter Contents:

• 16.1 Objective
• 16.2 Methodology
• 16.3 Total costs
• 16.4 Initial LP data assumptions
• 16.5 LP studies
• 16.6 LP sensitivities
• 16.7 Data assumptions in detailed model
• 16.8 Detailed model results
• 16.9 Model sensitivities
• 16.10 Comparison of model and LP
• 16.11 Risk analysis
• 16.12 Conclusions

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