access icon openaccess Cross-correlation of output fluctuation and system-balancing cost in photovoltaic integration

The authors analysed the cross-correlation of photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross-correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross-correlations. Then the operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using the proposed unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The system-balancing cost of PV system was also estimated with or without demand response. Finally, validity of the concept of ‘local production for local consumption of renewable energy’ and alternative policy implications were discussed.

Inspec keywords: power generation scheduling; power generation economics; principal component analysis; matrix algebra; time series; estimation theory; load forecasting; photovoltaic power systems

Other keywords: thermal plant operation scheduling; system-balancing cost estimation; cross-correlation coefficients; local production concept; actual PV output time series data; photovoltaic integration; Tokyo area; forecast error estimation; photovoltaic output fluctuation cross-correlation; Japan; policy implications; principal component analysis; unit commitment model; random matrix theory; local renewable energy consumption

Subjects: Power system planning and layout; Other topics in statistics; Solar power stations and photovoltaic power systems; Algebra; Power system management, operation and economics

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