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access icon free Power system security assessment with high wind penetration using the farms models based on their correlation

© The Institution of Engineering and Technology
Received 08/06/2017, Accepted 19/12/2017, Revised 13/12/2017, Published 15/03/2018

Increasing the wind energy penetration in a power system presents some technical challenges to the transmission expansion planning (TEP). In the first stage of TEP, the transmission bottlenecks should be determined and ranked via security assessment. The high penetration of wind energy means a large number of wind farms exist in various geographic areas. It is found that there is a correlation between the wind speed series of different farms. Therefore, integration of the correlated wind farms into security assessment is addressed in this study. Hence, a new model of wind speed prediction is presented based on the correlated autoregressive moving average time series. The copula functions are used to make the predefined correlation among wind speed series. Here a linear correlation using a Gaussian copula is implemented. Then, the risk-based security assessment is performed using the proposed sequential time simulation. The proposed process is applied to the modified IEEE 39-bus test system which comprises 15 wind farms. Then, the transmission bottlenecks are identified and ranked regarding their overload risks. Finally, the impacts of the wind farms correlation on the risk index are investigated and those contingencies which impose the highest influence on this risk are identified.

Inspec keywords: load forecasting; wind power plants; autoregressive moving average processes; Gaussian processes; time series; power system security

Other keywords: sequential time simulation; wind speed prediction model; wind energy penetration; wind farm model; TEP; power system security assessment; transmission expansion planning; correlated autoregressive moving average time series; risk-based security assessment; Gaussian copula function; modified IEEE 39-bus test system

Subjects: Power system control; Other topics in statistics; Power system planning and layout; Wind power plants

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