access icon free Markov chain Monte Carlo and acceptance–rejection algorithms for synthesising short-term variations in the generation output of the photovoltaic system

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is fast being deployed in electric power grids. For its more reliable integration into grids, the impact of its intermittent generation on grids should be further examined. However, high-resolution solar and meteorological measurement data in 1 s or 1 min intervals are often not available for many areas or they are expensive to obtain. Thus, the objective of this study is to present a first-order Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that synthesises the short-term variation, or sudden energy shortages and overages, in the power generation of a PV system in high-resolution, from low-resolution solar and meteorological data. In addition, up and down ramp rates in PV output are significant for the application of battery storage systems or grid operation. Thus, the acceptance–rejection algorithm able to limit such ramp rates is proposed. The proposed MCMC and acceptance–rejection methods are verified by comparing the statistical characteristics of the synthesised data to those of the original data. From case studies, this study found that the proposed methods could present the sufficient short-term variation in generation output of a PV system.

Inspec keywords: photovoltaic power systems; battery storage plants; power grids; power generation reliability; Markov processes; solar power stations; Monte Carlo methods

Other keywords: sudden energy shortage synthesis; battery storage systems; solar photovoltaic; low-resolution solar data; acceptance-rejection algorithm; electric power grids; photovoltaic system generation output; short-term variation synthesis; up ramp rate; overages synthesis; meteorological data; first-order MCMC method; grid operation; down ramp rate; first-order Markov chain Monte Carlo method

Subjects: Reliability; Monte Carlo methods; Other power stations and plants; Markov processes; Solar power stations and photovoltaic power systems

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