Effects of predictive horizon on network performance under short-term predictive information

Apirath Phusittrakool; Chawalit Jeenanunta; Passakon Prathombutr

Effects of predictive horizon on network performance under short-term predictive information

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Author(s): Apirath Phusittrakool¹ ; Chawalit Jeenanunta¹ ; Passakon Prathombutr²
- Affiliations: 1: School of Management Technology , Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University , Pathum Thani 12121 , Thailand ;
  2: Intelligent Transport Systems Program , National Electronics and Computer Technology Center , Pathum Thani 12120 , Thailand
Source: Volume 12, Issue 2, March 2018, p. 113 – 119
DOI: 10.1049/iet-its.2017.0007 , Print ISSN 1751-956X, Online ISSN 1751-9578

Received 13/01/2017, Accepted 25/10/2017, Revised 07/09/2017, Published 07/11/2017

Providing predictive information is expected to be an effective way in reducing congestion because travellers can have information of future traffic conditions and plan their travel ahead of time. However, due to the complex and computational expense of traffic flow forecasting, only short horizon future travel times can be generated and provided, which seems not sufficient for travellers to accurately plan their travel along an entire path. In this study, the authors have developed a simulation model to investigate the impact that limited time-span predictions have on the effectiveness of the predictive information. The results indicate that even though the predicted horizon is very short, the predictive information can still perform better than the current prevailing information. Sensitivity analysis of market penetration rates and prediction horizons is also discussed. This study is expected to be guidance for practical implementation and operation of short-term predictive information scenarios.

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