Reliability prediction method for wave and tidal devices

Reliability prediction method for wave and tidal devices

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It is proposed that a reliability prediction model for prototype marine energy converters (MECs) could predict incident failures, analyse a system's future performance and compare different architectures, so that lower failure rate devices could be developed. Challenges in establishing such a method include the absence of historical data and the low level of deployment of wave and tidal stream generation technology in comparable locations. In speaking of MEC reliability concepts, it is useful to present the definition of probability-based reliability and reliability modelling. Based on MIL-STD721C, reliability in general is the probability that a part or system will perform its intended function for a specific time interval under stated conditions. It is measured quantitatively and consists of several reliability characteristics, the results being different for non-repairable and repairable systems/sub-systems/assemblies/ sub-assemblies/components. This paper sets out a system assessment method to quantitatively evaluate MEC technology reliability.

Chapter Contents:

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Different reliability prediction and assessment methods
  • 4.2.1 General
  • 4.2.2 Reliability modelling and prediction (RMP)
  • 4.2.3 Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)
  • 4.2.4 Fault tree analysis (FTA)
  • 4.2.5 Monte Carlo simulation
  • 4.2.6 Bayesian subjective modelling
  • 4.3 Proposed RMP method
  • 4.3.1 Reliability modelling and prediction
  • 4.3.2 Reliability data from surrogate sources
  • 4.3.3 Reliability using environmental modification factors
  • 4.4 Reliability prediction model calculations
  • 4.4.1 Series network
  • 4.4.2 Series parallel network
  • 4.5 Summary

Inspec keywords: wave power generation; power generation reliability; tidal power stations

Other keywords: system assessment method; reliability modelling; probability-based reliability; incident failures; tidal devices; reliability prediction method; prototype marine energy converters; wave devices; MEC reliability

Subjects: Wave power; Reliability; Tidal and flow energy; Tidal power stations and plants

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